COVID-19 Math

Guys-

A quick formula to use for calculating "Cases" into "Deaths"
1) enter the smaller number (deaths) into your calculator
2) and divide by the larger number (cases)
3) the result will be the % of deaths relative to cases

EX: Per (coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html)

Worldwide "Deaths" = 40,636 divided by Worldwide "confirmed cases" = 823,479 = .0493%
Which is read, just under one-half of one-one hundreth of 1%

For perspective's sake consider the following:
In 2019 the US (alone) had approximately 10 million "cases" of the regular/annual flu which killed about 22,000 people. (.002%)
which is read, "two thousand'ths of 1%" And this is the fatality rate of a virus we have a vaccine for.

Q: Is COVID-19 deadly?
A: Yes.
Q: Is it appreciably more deadly than the regular flu?
A: Sorta.
Q: Is it okay to be endlessly terrified about Covid-19 vs. the "regular" flu?
A: The math suggests probably not.

Carry on, wash your genitals...but not each others genitals. (unless you're into that sort of thing...not judging)

DF

=HOG= wrote:

Guys-

A quick formula to use for calculating "Cases" into "Deaths"
1) enter the smaller number (deaths) into your calculator
2) and divide by the larger number (cases)
3) the result will be the % of deaths relative to cases

EX: Per (coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html)

Worldwide "Deaths" = 40,636 divided by Worldwide "confirmed cases" = 823,479 = .0493%
Which is read, just under one-half of one-one hundreth of 1%

Big wrong here... you cant take total "confirmed cases" together with total "Deaths" into calculation.
The percentage of dead cases in relation to the total cases will not portray the correct fatality rate because you compare "closed" cases with still "ongoing" ones. The ongoing ones can still die, hence the percentage you calculate is way to low. You could calculate it your way only if the pandemic is over and no more cases will occur.

The correct way would be to only take "closed" cases into calculation. So "Total Death" and "Total Recovered" cases.
The problem here is that the cured cases have not to be reported... at least in the EU.

EX: Per ( coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html )

Worldwide "Deaths" = 40,636 divided by Worldwide "Total Recovered" = 174.115 = 23,3%

Due to the fact that not all "Total Recovered" cases are reported the 23 % is the max and most likely to high.

No leiber freund, not wrong and not meant to be predictive either. Simply, precision for the sake of expediency and over-arching perspective which is in very short supply lately....which, subsequently, has enable politicians a temporary justification to further subjegate an otherwise healthy and productive citizenry. More Molon Labe less Nabelshau...perhaps?

Real, Percieved, Sick and Dead are different words for a reason. Full-blown-hair-on-fire-panic is, by definition, unreasonable. My company just furloughed 75% of it's staff. Why? Because they understood they could push their payroll off on the taxpayers without consequence. And, not one of them met the medical criteria below...


<From JAMA>

A subsample of 355 patients with COVID-19 who died in Italy underwent detailed chart review. Among these patients, the mean age was 79.5 years[/b (SD, 8.1) and 601 (30.0%) were women. In this sample, 117 patients (30%) had ischemic heart disease, 126 (35.5%) had diabetes, 72 (20.3%) had active cancer, 87 (24.5%) had atrial fibrillation, 24 (6.8%) had dementia, and 34 (9.6%) had a history of stroke. The mean number of preexisting diseases was 2.7 (SD, 1.6). Overall, only 3 patients (0.8%) had no diseases, 89 (25.1%) had a single disease, 91 (25.6%) had 2 diseases, and 172 (48.5%) had 3 or more underlying diseases. The presence of these comorbidities might have increased the risk of mortality independent of COVID-19 infection


<From publichealthontario>

Mean age (SD): 79.5 years (8.1)
 Mean number of pre-existing conditions per patient (SD): 2.7 (1.6)
 Pre-existing conditions: diabetes (35.5%), heart disease (33.0%), atrial fibrillation
(24.5%), cancer (20.3%), history of stroke (9.6%), and dementia (6.8%). Only 0.8% of
patients who died had no pre-existing conditions and 25%, 26%, and 49% had 1, 2, and
≥3 pre-existing conditions, respectively

Hey DOG!!! Long time no see! I want to tell everyone what happened to me. My 1 year old son got some weird rashes all over his body, probably alergy from eating some food, or medicine side affect. He took antibiotic before he got the rashes.... The rashes came at night, very fast, when he went to bed he was normal, when he woke up in the morning, all of his body was full with rashes... My wife called the private hospital where he was born, in the capital city, we went there and we visited the general doctor and the dermatologist and they took samples. My son was crying all the time because he was panicked. We panicked the hospital staff too. They gave us another medication, we came home and my son rashes slowly started to withraw. The next day the hospital called us and asked us to make a Covid testing on my son. We said we would think about it. We made every other test possible, blood results, alergo test, and his results were improving, my son got happier and his rashes now are 90 % gone. He doesnt have temperature he is going back to normal again !!! I got second opinion from very old and experienced doctors, which point to me that this is "school example" of medicine side affect. The hospital calls us every day to make a covid test. They are so persistant that i think they WANT us to make this test so they can write us Positive !!! No one in my family is sick or with temperature, we are all perfectly fine !!! Few days more pass, the hospital calls us again offering "FREE" covid test !!! This is outrageous.... We refused.... few weeks passed untill they stoped bothering us. No one in my surrounding is either sick or passed away from some kind of sickness... Now im not saying there is no Covid. There is Covid. But my conclusion is governments are deliberately pushing this weird Covid 19 using private hospitals, i really dont know to which end, i am pretty sure they have some hidden agenda on a worldwide scale... Thank God that no one in my family is sick. I hope u are all well and healthy. Love you all, the electrician.